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In the paper we analyse dependence structures among international trade flowsof major conventional weapons from 1952 to 2016. We employ a NetworkDisturbance Model commonly used in inferential network analysis and spatialeconometrics. The dependence structure is represented by pre-defined weightmatrices that allow for relating the arms trade flows from the network ofinternational arms exchange. Several different weight matrices are compared bymeans of the AIC in order to select the best dependence structure. It turns outthat the dependence structure among the arms trade flows is rather complex andcan be represented by a specification that, simply speaking, relates each armstrade flow to all exports and imports of the sending and the receiving state.By controlling for explanatory variables we are able to show the influence ofpolitical and economic variables on the volume traded.

Exploring Dependence Structures in the International Arms Trade Network