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Complex systems performing spiking dynamics are widespread in Nature. Theycover from earthquakes, to neurons, variable stars, social networks, or stockmarkets. Understanding and characterizing their dynamics is relevant in orderto detect transitions, or to predict unwanted extreme events. Here we study theoutput intensity of a semiconductor laser with feedback, in a regime where itdevelops a complex spiking behavior, under an ordinal patterns analysis. Weunveil that the complex dynamics presents two competing behaviors that can bedistinguished with a thresholding method, and we use temporal correlations toforecast the extreme events, and transitions between dynamics.

Forecasting Extreme Events in the Complex Dynamics of a Semiconductor Laser with Feedback