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For safety reasons, it is important that the design of buildings and publicfacilities comply with the guidelines compiled in building codes.The latter areoften premised on the concept of exit capacity, \emph{i.e.}, the meanpedestrian flow rate through a bottleneck (at congestion). Here, we argue thatone should duly take into account the evacuation time fluctuations whendevising these guidelines. This is particularly true when the narrowingisabrupt and the crowd may behave competitively. We suggest a simple way toassess the extent of (part of) these fluctuations on the basis of thestatistics of time gaps between successive escapes through theconsideredbottleneck, which in practice could be garnered by analysingrecordings of future real evacuations or, perhaps, realistic drills (in thelimits of what is ethically possible). We briefly present a test of theproposed strategy using a cellular automaton model and confirm its validityunder some conditions, but alsodisclose some of its limitations. In particular,it may severely underestimate fluctuations in the presence of strongcorrelations in the pedestrians' behaviours(while still performing better thanonly the mean capacity).

Fluctuations in pedestrian evacuation times: Going one step beyond the exit capacity paradigm for bottlenecks