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Human dynamics and sociophysics suggest statistical models that may explainand provide us with better insight into social phenomena. Here we propose agenerative model based on a stochastic differential equation that allows us toanalyse the polls leading up to the UK 2016 EU referendum. After a preliminaryanalysis of the time series of poll results, we provide empirical evidence thatthe beta distribution, which is a natural choice when modelling proportions,fits the marginal distribution of this time series. We also provide evidence ofthe predictive power of the proposed model.

A stochastic differential equation approach to the analysis of the UK 2016 EU referendum polls