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The online sports gambling industry employs teams of data analysts to buildforecast models that turn the odds at sports games in their favour. Whileseveral betting strategies have been proposed to beat bookmakers, from expertprediction models and arbitrage strategies to odds bias exploitation, theirreturns have been inconsistent and it remains to be shown that a bettingstrategy can outperform the online sports betting market. We designed astrategy to beat football bookmakers with their own numbers. Instead ofbuilding a forecasting model to compete with bookmakers predictions, weexploited the probability information implicit in the odds publicly availablein the marketplace to find bets with mispriced odds. Our strategy provedprofitable in a 10-year historical simulation using closing odds, a 6-monthhistorical simulation using minute to minute odds, and a 5-month period duringwhich we staked real money with the bookmakers (we made code, data and modelspublicly available). Our results demonstrate that the football betting marketis inefficient - bookmakers can be consistently beaten across thousands ofgames in both simulated environments and real-life betting. We provide adetailed description of our betting experience to illustrate how the sportsgambling industry compensates these market inefficiencies with discriminatorypractices against successful clients.

Beating the bookies with their own numbers - and how the online sports betting market is rigged