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Virginia's barrier islands constitute one of the most undeveloped shorelinesof the eastern US. Aside from a few islands in the north, the islands areuninhabited and managed for conservation. These islands play importantenvironmental, cultural, and economic roles along Virginia's Eastern Shore.Climate change driven sea-level rise is already having a major impact on theseislands and threatens their existence. We utilize transect analysis across eachof the barrier islands to depict the shoreline change trends annually from 1850to 2010. We then utilize time series forecasting and panel modeling to estimatefuture shorelines up to and including a best estimate 2099 CE shoreline.Results indicate that across almost all the islands, the shoreline retreat ratehas been increasing over time. Additionally, we find that year 2100 CEsea-level rise scenarios are likely to accelerate the shoreline retreatoccurring on these islands and may erase many of them all together. We findthat the northern islands of Wallops and North Assateague will remain generallystable whereas many of the remaining islands will likely experience rapidshoreline retreat under future sea-level rise scenarios.

On Borrowed Time: The Past, Present, and Future of Virginia's Barrier Islands under Differing Sea-Level Rise Scenarios