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Blockchain systems are designed to produce blocks at a constant average rate.The most popular systems currently employ a Proof of Work (PoW) algorithm as ameans of creating these blocks. Bitcoin produces, on average, one block every10 minutes. An unfortunate limitation of all deployed PoW blockchain systems isthat the time between blocks has high variance. For example, 5% of the time,Bitcoin's inter-block time is at least 40 minutes. This variance impedes theconsistent flow of validated transactions through the system. We propose analternative process for PoW-based block discovery that results in aninter-block time with significantly lower variance. Our algorithm, calledBobtail, generalizes the current algorithm by comparing the mean of the klowest order statistics to a target. We show that the variance of inter-blocktimes decreases as k increases. If our approach were applied to Bitcoin, about80% of blocks would be found within 7 to 12 minutes, and nearly every blockwould be found within 5 to 18 minutes; the average inter-block time wouldremain at 10 minutes. Further, we show that low-variance mining significantlythwarts doublespend and selfish mining attacks. For Bitcoin and Ethereumcurrently (k=1), an attacker with 40% of the mining power will succeed with 30%probability when the merchant sets up an embargo of 8 blocks; however, whenk>=20, the probability of success falls to less than 1%. Similarly, for Bitcoinand Ethereum currently, a selfish miner with 40% of the mining power will claimabout 66% of blocks; however, when k>=5, the same miner will find that selfishmining is less successful than honest mining. The cost of our approach is alarger block header.

Bobtail: A Proof-of-Work Target that Minimizes Blockchain Mining Variance (Draft)