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Predictions of the solar wind at Earth are a central aspect of space weatherprediction. The outcome of such a prediction, however, is highly sensitive tothe method used for computing the magnetic field in the corona. We analyze theimpact of replacing the potential field coronal boundary conditions, as used inoperational space weather prediction tools, by non-potential conditions. Forthis, we compare the predicted solar wind plasma parameters with observationsat 1 AU for two six-months intervals, one at solar maximum and one in thedescending phase of the current cycle. As a baseline, we compare with theoperational Wang-Sheeley-Arge model. We find that for solar maximum, thenon-potential coronal model and an adapted solar wind speed formula lead to thebest solar wind predictions in a statistical sense. For the descending phase,the potential coronal model performs best. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge modeloutperforms the others in predicting high speed enhancements and streamerinteractions. A better parameter fitting for the adapted wind speed formula isexpected to improve the performance of the non-potential model here.

Impact of Non-potential Coronal Boundary Conditions on Solar Wind Prediction