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Certain areas of scientific research flourish while others lose advocates andattention. We are interested in whether structural patterns within citationnetworks correspond to the growth or decline of the research areas to whichthose networks belong. We focus on three topic areas within optical physics asa set of cases; those areas have developed along different trajectories: onecontinues to expand rapidly; another is on the wane after an earlier peak; thefinal area has re-emerged after a short waning period. These three areas havesubstantial overlaps in the types of equipment they use and generalmethodology; at the same time, their citation networks are largely independentof each other. For each of our three areas, we map the citation networks of thetop-100 most-cited papers, published pre-1999. In order to quantify thestructures of the selected articles' citation networks, we use a modifiedversion of weak tie theory in tandem with entropy measures. Although thefortunes of a given research area are most obviously the result of accumulatedinnovations and impasses, our preliminary study provides evidence that thesecitation networks' emergent structures reflect those developments and may shapeevolving conversations in the scholarly literature.

Structure in scientific networks: towards predictions of research dynamism