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Population genetics models typically consider a fixed population size and aunique selection coefficient. However, population dynamics inherently generatenoise in numbers of individuals and selection acts on various components of theindividuals' fitness. In plant species with seed banks, the size of both theabove- and below-ground compartments present noise depending on seed productionand the state of the seed bank. We investigate if this noise has consequenceson 1)~the rate of genetic drift, and 2)~the efficacy of selection. We considerfour variants of two-allele Moran-type models defined by combinations ofpresence and absence of noise in above-ground and seed bank compartments. Timescale analysis and dimension reduction methods allow us to reduce thecorresponding Fokker-Planck equation to a one-dimensional diffusionapproximation of a Moran model. We first show that if the above-ground noiseclassically affects the rate of genetic drift, below-ground noise reduces thediversity storage effect of the seed bank. Second, we consider that selectioncan act on four different components of the plant fitness: plant or seed deathrate, seed production or seed germination. Our striking result is that theefficacy of selection for seed death rate or germination rate is reduced byseed bank noise, whereas selection occurring on plant death rate or seedproduction is not affected. We derive the expected site-frequency spectrumreflecting this heterogeneity in selection efficacy between genes underpinningdifferent plant fitness components. Our results highlight the importance toconsider the effect of ecological noise to predict the impact of seed banks onneutral and selective evolution.

Effects of population- and seed bank noise on neutral evolution and efficacy of natural selection