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With a majority of 'Yes' votes in the Constitutional Referendum of 2017,Turkey continues its transition from democracy to autocracy. By the will of theTurkish people, this referendum transferred practically all executive power topresident Erdogan. However, the referendum was confronted with a substantialnumber of allegations of electoral misconducts and irregularities, ranging fromstate coercion of 'No' supporters to the controversial validity of unstampedballots. In this note we report the results of an election forensic analysis ofthe 2017 referendum to clarify to what extent these voting irregularities werepresent and if they were able to influence the outcome of the referendum. Wespecifically apply novel statistical forensics tests to further identify thespecific nature of electoral malpractices. In particular, we test whether thedata contains fingerprints for ballot-stuffing (submission of multiple ballotsper person during the vote) and voter rigging (coercion and intimidation ofvoters). Additionally, we perform tests to identify numerical anomalies in theelection results. We find systematic and highly significant support for thepresence of both, ballot-stuffing and voter rigging. In 6% of stations we findsigns for ballot-stuffing with an error (probability of ballot-stuffing nothappening) of 0.15% (3 sigma event). The influence of these vote distortionswere large enough to tip the overall balance from 'No' to a majority of 'Yes'votes.

Election forensic analysis of the Turkish Constitutional Referendum 2017