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We describe the Time Series Multivariate Adaptive Regressions Splines(TSMARS) method. This method is useful for identifying nonlinear structure in atime series. We use TSMARS to model the annual change in the balance of tradefor Ireland from 1970 to 2007. We compare the TSMARS estimate with long memoryARFIMA estimates and long-term parsimonious linear models. We show that thechange in the balance of trade is nonlinear and possesses weakly long rangeeffects. Moreover, we compare the period prior to the introduction of theIntrastat system in 1993 with the period from 1993 onward. Here we show that inthe earlier period the series had a substantial linear signal embedded in itsuggesting that estimation efforts in the earlier period may have resulted inan over-smoothed series.

Is the annual growth rate in balance of trade time series for Ireland nonlinear