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The paper presents a critical introduction to the complex statistical modelsused in ${}^{14}$C dating. The emphasis is on the estimation of the transittime between a sequence of archeological layers. Although a frequentistestimation of the parameters is relatively simple, confidence intervalsconstructions are not standard as the models are not regular. I argue that thatthe Bayesian paradigm is a natural approach to these models. It is simple, andgives immediate solutions to credible sets, with natural interpretation andsimple construction. Indeed it is the standard tool of ${}^{14}$C analysis.However and necessarily, the Bayesian approach is based on technicalassumptions that may dominate the scientific conclusion in a hard to predictway. I exemplify the discussion in two ways. Firstly, I simulate toy models.Secondly, I analyze a particular data set from the Iron Age period in TelRehov. These data are important to the debate on the absolute time of the IronAge I/IIA transition in the Levant, and in particular to the feasibility of theBible story about the United Monarchy of David and Solomon. Our conclusion isthat the data in question cannot resolve this debate.

The utility of a Bayesian analysis of complex models and the study of archeological ${}^{14}$C data