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We fit 12 independent surface temperature time series (zones of latitude), 6land- and 6 ocean-based, with a Gaussian (centered around WW2) on a quadraticbackground. The four polar zones are unusable. Each of the remaining 8 showsevidence of a 0.2-0.3 degree C bump, although one zone is dropped from thefinal analysis because of an aberrant fit. Thus, we find that a surfacetemperature increase around WW2 is a robust, statistically significant (5.2sigma) feature of the data, and must either be a coincidence, due to systematicerror that came and went around WW2, or direct evidence of the effect of humanactivity (an increase in combustion of various sorts) on the global climate.The fact that, at least in that era, the temperature recovered quickly, isencouraging. On the other hand, extrapolation of the background temperaturerise predicts an increase of 0.5 degree C in the next 20 years if conditionsremain the same.

Global surface temperature trends and the effect of World War II: a parametric analysis (long version)