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Transmission lines are vital components in power systems. Tripping oftransmission lines caused by over-temperature is a major threat to the securityof system operations, so it is necessary to efficiently simulate linetemperature under both normal operation conditions and foreseen faultconditions. Existing methods based on thermal-steady-state analyses cannotreflect transient temperature evolution, and thus cannot provide timinginformation needed for taking remedial actions. Moreover, conventionalnumerical method requires huge computational efforts and barricades system-wideanalysis. In this regard, this paper derives an approximate analytical solutionof transmission-line temperature evolution enabling efficient analysis onmultiple operation states. Considering the uncertainties in environmentalparameters, the region of over-temperature is constructed in the environmentalparameter space to realize the over-temperature risk assessment in both theplanning stage and real-time operations. A test on a typical conductor modelverifies the accuracy of the approximate analytical solution. Based on theanalytical solution and numerical weather prediction (NWP) data, an efficientsimulation method for temperature evolution of transmission systems undermultiple operation states is proposed. As demonstrated on an NPCC 140-bussystem, it achieves over 1000 times of efficiency enhancement, verifying itspotentials in online risk assessment and decision support.

Efficient Simulation of Temperature Evolution of Overhead Transmission Lines Based on Analytical Solution and NWP