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Dengue fever is increasing in geographical range, spread by invasion of itsvector mosquitoes. The trade in second-hand tires has been implicated as afactor in this process as they act as mobile reservoirs of mosquito eggs andlarvae. Regional transportation of tires can create linkages between ruralareas with dengue to disease-free urban areas, potentially giving rise tooutbreaks even in areas with strong local control measures. In this work wesought to model the dynamics of mosquito transportation via the tire trade, inparticular to predict its role in causing unexpected dengue outbreaks throughvertical transmission of the virus across generations of mosquitoes. We alsoaimed to identify strategies for regulating the trade in second-hand tires,improving disease control. We created a mathematical model which captures thedynamics of dengue between rural and urban areas, taking into account themovement, storage time of tires, and mosquito diapause. We simulate a series ofscenarios. First a mosquito population is introduced to a dengue-free area viamovement of tires, either as single or multiple events, increasing thelikelihood of a dengue outbreak. An endemic state can be induced regardless ofwhether urban conditions for an outbreak are met, and an existing endemic statecan be enhanced by vector input. Finally we assess the potential for regulationof tire processing as a means of reducing the transmission of dengue feverusing a specific case study from Puerto Rico. Our work demonstrates theimportance of the second-hand tire trade in modulating the spread of denguefever across regions, in particular its role in introducing dengue todisease-free areas. We propose that regulation of tire storage and movement canplay a crucial role in containing outbreaks and dengue spread.

Increased Efficiency in the Second-Hand Tire Trade Provides Opportunity for Dengue Control