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We consider the problem of probabilistic projection of the total fertilityrate (TFR) for subnational regions. We seek a method that is consistent withthe UN's recently adopted Bayesian method for probabilistic TFR projections forall countries, and works well for all countries. We assess various possiblemethods using subnational TFR data for 47 countries. We find that the methodthat performs best in terms of out-of-sample predictive performance and also interms of reproducing the within-country correlation in TFR is a method thatscales the national trajectory by a region-specific scale factor that isallowed to vary slowly over time. This supports the hypothesis of Watkins(1990, 1991) that within-country TFR converges over time in response tocountry-specific factors, and extends the Watkins hypothesis to the last 50years and to a much wider range of countries around the world.

Probabilistic Projection of Subnational Total Fertility Rates