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The air pollution has become a serious challenge in China. Emissions frommotor vehicles have been found as one main source of air pollution. Althoughthe Chinese government has taken numerous policies to mitigate the harmfulemissions from road transport sector, it is still uncertain for both policymakers and researchers to know to what extent the policies are effective in theshort and long terms. Inspired by the concept and empirical results fromcurrent literature on energy rebound effect (ERE), we first propose a newconcept of pollution rebound effect (PRE). Then, we estimate direct air PRE asa measure for the effectiveness of the policies of reducing air pollution fromtransport sector based on time-series data from the period 1986-2014. We findthat the short-term direct air PRE is -1.4105, and the corresponding long-runPRE is -1.246. The negative results indicate that the direct air PRE does notexist in road passenger transport sector in China, either in the short term orin the long term during the period 1986-2014. This implies that the Chinesetransport policies are effective in terms of harmful emissions reduction in thetransport sector. This research, to the best of our knowledge, is the firstattempt to quantify the effectiveness of the transport policies in thetransitional China.

Are Chinese transport policies effective? A new perspective from direct pollution rebound effect, and empirical evidence from road transport sector