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This study downscales the population and gross domestic product (GDP)scenarios given under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) into 0.5-degreegrids. Our downscale approach has the following features: (i) it explicitlyconsiders spatial and socioeconomic interactions among cities; (ii) it utilizesauxiliary variables, including, road network and land cover; (iii) itendogenously estimates influence from each factor by a model ensemble approach;(iv) it allows us controlling urban shrinkage/dispersion depending on SSPs. Itis confirmed that our downscaling results are consistent with scenarioassumptions (e.g., concentration in SSP1 and dispersion in SSP3). Besides,while existing grid-level scenario tends to have overly-smoothed populationdistributions in non-urban areas, ours does not suffer from the problem, andcaptures difference in urban and non-urban areas in a more reasonable manner.

Estimation of gridded population and GDP scenarios with spatially explicit statistical downscaling