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It is very vital for suppliers and distributors to predict the deregulatedelectricity prices for creating their bidding strategies in the competitivemarket area. Pre requirement of succeeding in this field, accurate and suitableelectricity tariff price forecasting tools are needed. In the presence ofeffective forecasting tools, taking the decisions of production, merchandising,maintenance and investment with the aim of maximizing the profits and benefitscan be successively and effectively done. According to the electricity demand,there are four various electricity tariffs pricing in Turkey; monochromic, day,peak and night. The objective is find the best suitable tool for predicting thefour pricing periods of electricity and produce short term forecasts (one yearahead-monthly). Our approach based on finding the best model, which ensures thesmallest forecasting error measurements of: MAPE, MAD and MSD. We conduct acomparison of various forecasting approaches in total accounts for nine teen,at least all of those have different aspects of methodology. Our beginning stepwas doing forecasts for the year 2015. We validated and analyzed theperformance of our best model and made comparisons to see how well thehistorical values of 2015 and forecasted data for that specific period matched.Results show that given the time-series data, the recommended models providedgood forecasts. Second part of practice, we also include the year 2015, andcompute all the models with the time series of January 2011 to December 2015.Again by choosing the best appropriate forecasting model, we conducted theforecast process and also analyze the impact of enhancing of time seriesperiods (January 2007 to December 2015) to model that we used for forecastingprocess.

A Comparison of Various Electricity Tariff Price Forecasting Techniques in Turkey and Identifying the Impact of Time Series Periods