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We construct two ordinary-differential-equation models of a predator feedingadaptively on two prey types, and we evaluate the models' ability to fit dataon freshwater plankton. We model the predator's switch from one prey to theother in two different ways: (1) smooth switching using a hyperbolic tangentfunction; and (2) by incorporating a parameter that changes abruptly across theswitching boundary as a system variable that is coupled to the populationdynamics. We conduct linear stability analyses, use approximate Bayesiancomputation (ABC) combined with a population Monte Carlo (PMC) method to fitmodel parameters, and compare model predictions quantitatively to data forciliate predators and their two algal prey groups collected from Lake Constanceon the German--Swiss--Austrian border. We show that the two models fit the datawell when the smooth transition is steep, supporting the simplifying assumptionof a discontinuous prey switching behavior for this scenario. We thus concludethat prey switching is a possible mechanistic explanation for the observedciliate--algae dynamics in Lake Constance in spring, but that these data cannotdistinguish between the details of prey switching that are encoded in thesedifferent models.

Inferring parameters of prey switching in a plankton 1 predator--2 prey system with a linear preference tradeoff