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In this paper I empirically investigate prediction markets for binaryoptions. Advocates of prediction markets have suggested that asset prices areconsistent estimators of the "true" probability of a state of the world beingrealized. I test whether the market reaches a "consensus." I find littleevidence for convergence in beliefs. I then determine whether an econometricianusing data beyond execution prices can leverage this data to estimate theconsensus belief. I use an incomplete specification of equilibrium outcomes toderive bounds on beliefs from order submission decisions. Interval estimates ofmean beliefs cannot exclude aggregate beliefs equal to 0.5.

The Informational Content of the Limit Order Book: An Empirical Study of Prediction Markets