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A scenario-based Neo-Deterministic approach to Seismic Hazard Assessment(NDSHA) is available nowadays, which permits considering a wide range ofpossible seismic sources as the starting point for deriving scenarios by meansof full waveforms modeling. The method does not make use of attenuationrelations and naturally supplies realistic time series of ground shaking,including reliable estimates of ground displacement, readily applicable tocomplete engineering analysis. Based on the neo-deterministic approach, anoperational integrated procedure for seismic hazard assessment has beendeveloped that allows for the definition of time dependent scenarios of groundshaking, through the routine updating of earthquake predictions, performed bymeans of the algorithms CN and M8S. The integrated NDSHA procedure for seismicinput definition, which is currently applied to the Italian territory, combinesdifferent pattern recognition techniques, designed for the space-timeidentification of strong earthquakes, with algorithms for the realisticmodeling of ground motion. Accordingly, a set of deterministic scenarios ofground motion at bedrock, which refers to the time interval when a strong eventis likely to occur within the alerted area, is defined both at regional andlocal scale. CN and M8S predictions, as well as the related time-dependentground motion scenarios associated with the alarmed areas, are routinelyupdated since 2006. The prospective application of the time-dependent NDSHAapproach provides information that can be useful in assigning priorities fortimely mitigation actions and, at the same time, allows for a rigorousvalidation of the proposed methodology. The results from real-time testing ofthe time-dependent NDSHA scenarios are illustrated with specific reference tothe August 24th, 2016 Central Italy earthquake.

Time-dependent neo-deterministic seismic hazard scenarios: Preliminary report on the M6.2 Central Italy earthquake, 24th August 2016