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A concise point kinetic model of the explosion of a prompt supercriticalsphere driven by a nuclear fission chain reaction is presented. The findingsare in good agreement with the data available for Trinity, the first detonationof a nuclear weapon conducted by the United States Army as part of theManhattan project. Results are presented for an implosion device containingpure plutonium-239, although the model can be easily applied to, e.g.,uranium-235. The fizzle probability and corresponding yield of a fission bombcontaining plutonium recovered from reactor fuel and therefore containingsignificant amounts of spontaneously fissioning plutonium-240 which can inducea predetonation of the device is illustrated by adding a corresponding sourceterm in the presented model. Related questions whether a bomb could be made bydeveloping countries or terrorist organizations can be tackled this way.Although the information needed to answer such questions is in the publicdomain, it is difficult to extract a consistent picture of the subject formembers of organizations who are concerned about the proliferation of nuclearexplosives.

Point kinetic model of the early phase of a spherically symmetric nuclear explosion