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The bifurcation method is a way to do rare event sampling -- to estimate theprobability of events that are too rare to be found by direct simulation. Wedescribe the bifurcation method and use it to estimate the transition rate of adouble well potential problem. We show that the associated constrained pathsampling problem can be addressed by a combination of Crooks-Chandler samplingand parallel tempering and marginalization.

A Bifurcation Monte Carlo Scheme for Rare Event Simulation