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In a competitive sport, every little thing matters. Yet, many sports leavesome large levers out of the reach of the teams, and in the hands of fate. Incricket, world's second most popular sport by some measures, one suchlever---the toss---has been subject to much recent attention. Using a largenovel dataset of 44,224 cricket matches, we estimate the impact of winning thetoss on the probability of winning. The data suggest that winning the tossincreases the chance of winning by a small ($\sim$ 2.8\%) but significantmargin. The advantage varies heftily and systematically, by how closely matchedthe competing teams are, and by playing conditions---tautologically, winningthe toss in conditions where the toss grants a greater advantage, for e.g., inday and night matches, has a larger impact on the probability of winning.

Fairly Random: The Impact of Winning the Toss on the Probability of Winning