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Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted by the mosquito Aedes aegypti.It has been observed that its incidence is strongly influenced by temperatureand other abiotic factors like rainfall and humidity. In this work we comparethe effects of seasonality in temperature that affect the entomologicalparameters of the mosquito with precipitation that affects the hatcherycapacity. We also analyze its joint action using a dynamical model for the lifecycle of Aedes aegypti and historical weather data from 8 regions of Mexico. Wefound that the joint action of different mechanisms can enhance the prevalenceof the disease, but also inhibit it when they act in an asynchronous way. Wefound that for the studied regions, the seasonality of the low temperaturerather than mean temperature is the main driving force of Dengue outbreaks. Wealso analyzed the role of the diapause in these kinds of outbreaks. Themethodology developed here can be used to discover the underlying mechanism ofDengue outbreaks in different regions and thus help to apply targeted controlmeasures.

Seasonality on the life cycle of Aedes aegypti mosquito and its effects on dengue outbreaks