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The Open Science Collaboration recently reported that 36% of publishedfindings from psychological studies were reproducible by independentresearchers. We can use this information together with Bayes theorem toestimate the statistical power needed to produce these findings under variousassumptions and calculate the expected distribution of positive and negativeevidence for a range of prior probabilities of the tested hypotheses; and bycomparing this distribution to other findings indicating that >90% ofpublications in the psychological literature are statistically significant insupport of the authors hypothesis, we can estimate the magnitude of publicationbias. The results indicate that negative evidence was observed 30--200 timesbefore one was published.

Recent reproducibility estimates indicate that negative evidence is observed over 30 times before publication