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Recently it was shown that free recall consists of two stages: the first fewrecalls empty working memory and a second stage concludes the recall (Tarnow,2015; for a review of the theoretical prediction see Murdock, 1974). Here Iinvestigate conditional response probabilities in Murdock's 40-1 (1962) freerecall dataset. I find that the conditional response probabilities confirm thepresence of two stages. The first stage is characterized by a large enhancementof the forward subsequent recall (up to 30 times chance) and a largesuppression of backward recalls (up to 26 times smaller than chance for recallsbetween 10 and 40 items away). The second stage forward subsequent recall isenhanced by a factor of 5 and the probability of backward and forward recallsare concentrated at small distances. Thus both stages favor forward subsequentrecalls. As in Tarnow (2015), the first stage is much more localized than thesecond stage. Working memory capacity is estimated in six ways to be about 4.5word items for the 40-1 word list.

Conditional Response Probabilities Confirm Two Stages of Free Recall,  Working Memory Very Localized, Second Stage Delocalized, Both with Strong  Tendencies to Forward Subsequent Recalls