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EMBERS is an anticipatory intelligence system forecasting population-levelevents in multiple countries of Latin America. A deployed system from 2012,EMBERS has been generating alerts 24x7 by ingesting a broad range of datasources including news, blogs, tweets, machine coded events, currency rates,and food prices. In this paper, we describe our experiences operating EMBERScontinuously for nearly 4 years, with specific attention to the discoveries ithas enabled, correct as well as missed forecasts, and lessons learnt fromparticipating in a forecasting tournament including our perspectives on thelimits of forecasting and ethical considerations.

EMBERS at 4 years: Experiences operating an Open Source Indicators Forecasting System