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Devastating floods in northeast Pakistan and northern India occurred in July2010 and September 2014 as a consequence of extreme precipitation events. The2010 and 2014 flood events had similar synoptic flow patterns that led to ananomalously high moisture content in the flood region. The quasi-geostrophicomega equation is inverted in order to attribute components of the large-scalevertical motion profile to synoptic forcing, diabatic heating, and mechanicallyforced orographic ascent. The results show that diabatic heating is thedominant contributor to the large-scale vertical motion, and suggest that theorographic forcing by flow over the Himalayas is the dominant mechanism bywhich the convection that produces the heating is forced. Analysis of a longerdata record shows that instances of extreme precipitation in this region overthe last eleven years are closely associated with simultaneously large valuesof orographic forcing and column-total precipitable water vapor.

The 2010 and 2014 floods in India and Pakistan: dynamical influences on vertical motion and precipitation