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Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes areforecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremeson forest productivity and health are complicated by potential interactionswith disturbance events and stand dynamics. The effects of stand dynamics onforest responses to climate and disturbance are particularly important givenforest characteristics driven by stand dynamics can be modified through forestmanagement with the goal of increasing forest resistance and resilience toclimate change. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian state-space model allowingclimate effects on tree growth to vary over time and in relation to climateextremes, disturbance events, and stand dynamics. We apply the model to adendrochronology dataset comprising measurements from forest stands of varyingcomposition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota.Results indicate average forest growth was most sensitive to variablesdescribing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficitwere partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances andinteractions with forest tent caterpillar defoliation. Forest growth was bothresistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growthresponses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances or insectdefoliation events. Forest growth was most sensitive to water deficit duringperiods of high stem density following major regeneration events when averageinter-tree competition was high. Results suggest that forest growth resistanceand resilience to interactions between climate extremes and insect defoliationcan be increased through management steps such as thinning to reducecompetition during early stages of stand development and small-group selectionharvests to maintain forest structures characteristic of older, mature stands.

Variable Effects of Climate on Forest Growth in Relation to Climate Extremes, Disturbance, and Forest Stand Dynamics