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Dematerialization is the reduction in the quantity of materials needed toproduce something useful over time. Dematerialization fundamentally derivesfrom ongoing increases in technical performance but it can be counteracted bydemand rebound - increases in usage because of increased value (or decreasedcost) that also results from increasing technical performance. A major questionthen is to what extent technological performance improvement can offset and isoffsetting continuously increasing economic consumption. This paper contributesto answering this question by offering some simple quantitative extensions tothe theory of dematerialization. The paper then empirically examines thematerials consumption trends as well as cost trends for a large set ofmaterials and a few modern artifacts over the past decades. In each of 57 casesexamined, the particular combinations of demand elasticity and technicalperformance rate improvement are not consistent with dematerialization.Overall, the theory extension and empirical examination indicate that there isno dematerialization occurring even for cases of information technology withrapid technical progress. Thus, a fully passive policy stance that relies onunfettered technological change is not supported by our results.

A Simple extension of Dematerialization Theory: Incorporation of Technical Progress and the Rebound Effect