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The existence of "Hot Hands" and "Streaks" in sports and gambling is hotlydebated, but there is no uncertainty about the recent batting-average of theNew York Times: it is now two-for-two in mangling and misunderstandingelementary concepts in probability and statistics; and mixing up the key pointsin a recent paper that re-examines earlier work on the statistics of streaks.In so doing, it's high-visibility articles have added to the general-public'sconfusion about probability, making it seem mysterious and paradoxical when itneedn't be. However, those articles make excellent case studies on how to getit wrong, and for discussions in high-school and college classes focusing onquantitative reasoning, data analysis, probability and statistics. What I havewritten here is intended for that audience.

Hot Hands, Streaks and Coin-flips: Numerical Nonsense in the New York Times