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Forest fire models may be interpreted as a simple model for earthquakeoccurrence by translating trees and fire into stressed segments of a fault andtheir rupture, respectively. Here we adopt a twodimensional forest-fire modelin continuous time, and focus on the temporal changes of seismicity and theb-value. We find the b-value change and seismic quiescence prior to largeearthquakes by stacking many sequences towards large earthquakes. As themagnitude-frequency relation in this model is directly related to thecluster-size distribution, decrease of the b-value can be explained in terms ofthe change in the cluster-size distribution. Decrease of the b-value means thatsmall clusters of stressed sites aggregate into a larger cluster. Seismicquiescence may be attributed to the decrease of stressed sites that do notbelong to percolated clusters.

Seismic quiescence and b-value decrease before large events in forest-fire model