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When PageRank began to be used for ranking in Web search, a concern soonarose that older pages have an inherent --- and potentially unfair ---advantage over emerging pages of high quality, because they have had more timeto acquire hyperlink citations. Algorithms were then proposed to compensate forthis effect. Curiously, in bibliometry, the opposite concern has often beenraised: that a growing body of recent papers crowds out older papers, resultingin a collective amnesia in research communities, which potentially leads toreinventions, redundancies, and missed opportunities to connect ideas. A recentpaper by Verstak et al. reported experiments on Google Scholar data, whichseemed to refute the amnesia, or aging, hypothesis. They claimed that morerecently written papers have a larger fraction of outbound citations targetingpapers that are older by a fixed number of years, indicating that ancientpapers are alive and well-loved and increasingly easily found, thanks in partto Google Scholar. In this paper we show that the full picture is considerablymore nuanced. Specifically, the fate of a fixed sample of papers, as they age,is rather different from what Verstak et al.'s study suggests: there is clearand steady abandonment in favor of citations to newer papers. The twoapparently contradictory views are reconciled by the realization that, as timepasses, the number of papers older than a fixed number of years grows rapidly.

Sic Transit Gloria Manuscriptum: Two Views of the Aggregate Fate of Ancient Papers