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For historical buildings and monuments, i.e. when considering time intervalsof about a million year (we do not want to loose cultural heritage), theapplicability of standard estimates of seismic hazard is really questionable. Aviable alternative is represented by the use of the scenario earthquakes,characterized at least in terms of magnitude, distance and faulting style, andby the treatment of complex source processes. Scenario-based seismic hazardmaps are purely based on geophysical and seismotectonic features of a regionand take into account the occurrence frequency of earthquakes only for theirclassification into exceptional (catastrophic), rare (disastrous), sporadic(very strong), occasional (strong) and frequent. Therefore they may provide anupper bound for the ground motion levels to be expected for most regions of theworld, more appropriate than probabilities of exceedance in view of the longtime scales required for the protection of historical buildings. Theneo-deterministic approach naturally supplies realistic time series of groundmotion, which represent also reliable estimates of ground displacement readilyapplicable to seismic isolation techniques, useful to preserve historicalmonuments and relevant man made structures. This methodology has beensuccessfully applied to many urban areas worldwide for the purpose of seismicmicrozoning, to strategic buildings, lifelines and cultural heritage sites; wewill discuss its application to the cities of Rome and Florence.

Earthquake scenarios and seismic input for cultural heritage: applications to the cities of Rome and Florence