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Oversubscribed treatments are often allocated using randomized waiting lists.Applicants are ranked randomly, and treatment offers are made following thatranking until all seats are filled. To estimate causal effects, researchersoften compare applicants getting and not getting an offer. We show that thosetwo groups are not statistically comparable. Therefore, the estimator arisingfrom that comparison is inconsistent. We propose a new estimator, and show thatit is consistent. Finally, we revisit an application, and we show that usingour estimator can lead to sizably different results from those obtained usingthe commonly used estimator.

Estimating the effect of treatments allocated by randomized waiting lists