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The "meningitis belt" is a region in sub-Saharan Africa where annualoutbreaks of meningitis occur, with large epidemics observed cyclically. Whilewe know that meningitis is heavily dependent on seasonal trends (in particular,weather), the exact pathways for contracting the disease are not fullyunderstood and warrant further investigation. This manuscript examinesmeningitis trends in the context of survival analysis, quantifying underlyingseasonal patterns in meningitis rates through the hazard rate for thepopulation of Navrongo, Ghana. We compare three candidate models: the commonlyused Poisson generalized linear model, the Bayesian multi-resolution hazardmodel, and the Poisson generalized additive model. We compare the accuracy androbustness of the models through the bias, RMSE, and the standard deviation. Weprovide a detailed case study of meningitis patterns for data collected inNavrongo, Ghana.

Models with time-varying predictors for meningitis in Navrongo, Ghana