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Influenza A is a serious disease that causes significant morbidity andmortality, and vaccines against the seasonal influenza disease are of variableeffectiveness. In this paper, we discuss use of the $p_{\rm epitope}$ method topredict the dominant influenza strain and the expected vaccine effectiveness inthe coming flu season. We illustrate how the effectiveness of the 2014/2015A/Texas/50/2012 [clade 3C.1] vaccine against the A/California/02/2014 [clade3C.3a] strain that emerged in the population can be estimated via pepitope. Inaddition, we show by a multidimensional scaling analysis of data collectedthrough 2014, the emergence of a new A/New Mexico/11/2014-like cluster [clade3C.2a] that is immunologically distinct from the A/California/02/2014-likestrains.

Influenza Evolution and H3N2 Vaccine Effectiveness, with Application to the 2014/2015 Season