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In the Monte desert, increasing population density, changing land rights andinfrastructure may encourage livestock activity, with unknown consequences onecosystems. Factors that influence livestock settlement distribution may affectecosystem degradation. We hypothesize that surface and groundwater availabilityinfluence livestock settlements distribution. We evaluated this hypothesis witha Monte Carlo based model to simulate Settlement Dynamics in Drylands (SeDD),which calculates probabilities on a gridded region based on six environmentalfactors: groundwater depth, vegetation type, proximity to rivers, paved roads,old river beds, and existing settlements. A parameter sweep, including millionsof simulations, was run with combinations of parameters related to thesefactors. The sets of parameter values that minimized the residuals betweensimulations and observations indicated the relative importance of each factorson settlement distribution. Distances to rivers and old river beds werecritical to explain the current distribution of settlements, while vegetation,paved roads, and water table depths were not important. Spatial distribution ofsimulated vegetation, which included degradation around livestock settlements,generally agreed with remotely sensed vegetation classes. The model could be auseful tool to evaluate the effects of land use changes (water provision, riverflows), on settlement distribution and vegetation degradation in aridenvironments.

Evaluating the importance of environmental factors on the spatial  distribution of livestock settlements in the Monte desert with a Monte Carlo  based model: Settlement Dynamics in Drylands (SeDD)