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Probability models are only useful at explaining the uncertainty of what wedo not know, and should never be used to say what we already know. Probabilityand statistical models are useless at discerning cause. Classical statisticalprocedures, in both their frequentist and Bayesian implementations are, falselyimply they can speak about cause. No hypothesis test, or Bayes factor, shouldever be used again. Even assuming we know the cause or partial cause for someset of observations, reporting via relative risk exagerates the certainty wehave in the future, often by a lot. This over-certainty is made much worse whenparametetric and not predictive methods are used. Unfortunately, predictivemethods are rarely used; and even when they are, cause must still be anassumption, meaning (again) certainty in our scientific pronouncements is toohigh.

The Crisis Of Evidence: Why Probability And Statistics Cannot Discover Cause