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The Millennium Villages Project (MVP) is a ten-year integrated ruraldevelopment project implemented in ten sub-Saharan African sites. At itsconclusion we will conduct an evaluation of its causal effect on a variety ofdevelopment outcomes, measured via household surveys in treatment andcomparison areas. Outcomes are measured by six survey modules, with samplesizes for each demographic group determined by budget, logistics, and thegroup's vulnerability. We design a sampling plan that aims to reduce effort forsurvey enumerators and maximize precision for all outcomes. We proposetwo-stage sampling designs, sampling households at the first stage, followed bya second stage sample that differs across demographic groups. Two-stage designsare usually constructed by simple random sampling (SRS) of households andproportional within-household sampling, or probability proportional to sizesampling (PPS) of households with fixed sampling within each. No measure ofhousehold size is proportional for all demographic groups, putting PPS schemesat a disadvantage. The SRS schemes have the disadvantage that multipleindividuals sampled per household decreases efficiency due to intra-householdcorrelation. We conduct a simulation study (using both design- and model-basedsurvey inference) to understand these tradeoffs and recommend a sampling planfor the Millennium Villages Project. Similar design issues arise in otherstudies with surveys that target different demographic groups.

Design of the Millennium Villages Project Sampling Plan: a simulation study for a multi-module survey