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The recent observation by the IceCube experiment of cosmic neutrinos atenergies up to a few PeV heralds the beginning of neutrino astronomy. At suchhigh energies, the conventional neutrino flux is suppressed and the promptcomponent from charm meson decays is expected to become the dominant backgroundto astrophysical neutrinos. Charm production at high energies is howevertheoretically uncertain, both since the charm mass is at the boundary ofapplicability of perturbative QCD, and also because the calculations aresensitive to the poorly-known gluon PDF at small-x. In this work we providedetailed perturbative QCD predictions for charm and bottom production in theforward region, and validate them by comparing with recent data from the LHCbexperiment at 7 TeV. Finding good agreement between data and theory, we use theLHCb measurements to constrain the small-x gluon PDF, achieving a substantialreduction in its uncertainties. Using these improved PDFs, we providepredictions for charm and bottom production at LHCb at 13 TeV, as well as forthe ratio of cross-sections between 13 and 7 TeV. The same calculations areused to compute the energy distribution of neutrinos from charm decays in pAcollisions, a key ingredient towards achieving a theoretically robust estimateof charm-induced backgrounds at neutrino telescopes.

Charm production in the forward region: constraints on the small-x gluon and backgrounds for neutrino astronomy