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The election forecasting 'industry' is a growing one, both in the volume ofscholars producing forecasts and methodological diversity. In recent years anew approach has emerged that relies on social media and particularly Twitterdata to predict election outcomes. While some studies have shown the method tohold a surprising degree of accuracy there has been criticism over the lack ofconsistency and clarity in the methods used, along with inevitable problems ofpopulation bias. In this paper we set out a 'baseline' model for using Twitteras an election forecasting tool that we then apply to the UK 2015 GeneralElection. The paper builds on existing literature by extending the use ofTwitter as a forecasting tool to the UK context and identifying itslimitations, particularly with regard to its application in a multi-partyenvironment with geographic concentration of power for minor parties.

140 Characters to Victory?: Using Twitter to Predict the UK 2015 General Election