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We develop a new smoothing or extrapolating method, based on discreteLaguerre functions, for systematically analyzing the stochastic signal ofshifted-contour auxiliary-field Monte Carlo. We study the statistical errorsand extrapolation errors using full configuration-interaction energies for thedoubly stretched water molecule. The only free parameter is the order N of thefit. We show that low N emphasizes stability while higher N enable improvedextrapolation, at the cost of increased statistical errors. Typically, oneshould use low order for signals based on a small number of iterations whilehigher order is efficacious for signals based on large number of iterations. Weprovide a heuristic algorithm for determining the order to be used and show itsutility.

Smoothing and extrapolating shifted-contour auxiliary-field Monte Carlo signals using discrete Laguerre functions