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We provide, and perform a risk theoretic statistical analysis of, a datasetthat is 75 percent larger than the previous best dataset on nuclear incidentsand accidents, comparing three measures of severity: INES (InternationalNuclear Event Scale), radiation released, and damage dollar losses. The annualrate of nuclear accidents, with size above 20 Million US$, per plant, decreasedfrom the 1950s until dropping significantly after Chernobyl (April, 1986). Therate is now roughly stable at 0.002 to 0.003, i.e., around 1 event per yearacross the current fleet. The distribution of damage values changed after ThreeMile Island (TMI; March, 1979), where moderate damages were suppressed but thetail became very heavy, being described by a Pareto distribution with tailindex 0.55. Further, there is a runaway disaster regime, associated with the"dragon-king" phenomenon, amplifying the risk of extreme damage. In fact, thedamage of the largest event (Fukushima; March, 2011) is equal to 60 percent ofthe total damage of all 174 accidents in our database since 1946. In dollarlosses we compute a 50% chance that (i) a Fukushima event (or larger) occurs inthe next 50 years, (ii) a Chernobyl event (or larger) occurs in the next 27years and (iii) a TMI event (or larger) occurs in the next 10 years. Finally,we find that the INES scale is inconsistent. To be consistent with damage, theFukushima disaster would need to have an INES level of 11, rather than themaximum of 7.

Of Disasters and Dragon Kings: A Statistical Analysis of Nuclear Power Incidents & Accidents