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A model of an Ebola epidemic is developed with infected individualsstructured according to disease age. The transmission of the infection istracked by disease age through an initial incubation (exposed) phase, followedby an infectious phase with variable transmission infectiousness. The removalof infected individuals is dependent on disease age, with three types ofremoval rates: (1) removal due to hospitalization (isolation), (2) removal dueto mortality separate from hospitalization, and (3) removal due to recoveryseparate from hospitalization. The model is applied to the Ebola epidemics inSierra Leone and Guinea. Model simulations indicate that successive stages ofincreased and earlier hospitalization of cases have resulted in mitigation ofthe epidemics.

A Model of the Ebola Epidemics in West Africa Incorporating Age of Infection