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The distribution of seismic moment is of capital interest to evaluateearthquake hazard, in particular regarding the most extreme events. We make useof likelihood-ratio tests to compare the simple Gutenberg-Richter power-lawdistribution with two statistical models that incorporate an exponential tail:the so-called tapered Gutenberg-Richter and the truncated gamma, when fitted tothe global CMT earthquake catalog. The outcome is that the truncated gammamodel outperforms the other two models. If simulated samples of the truncatedgamma are reshuffled in order to mimic the time occurrence of the orderstatistics of the empirical data, this model turns out to be able to explainthe empirical data both before and after the great Sumatra-Andaman earthquakeof 2004.

Deviation from power law of the global earthquake seismic moment distribution