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This paper presents a new method to compute VaR (value at risk) and performcorresponding variance based sensitivity analysis. VaR has a long history ofbeing applied in stock price prediction and investment portfolio analysis.Traditional method, however, is mainly analytical, and has certain limitations.The VaR simulation, on the other hand, provides more realistic analysis but isvery slow which affects the applications. This study proposes a new VaRcomputation method based on a probabilistic simulation technique calledSimulation As You Operate (SAYO). It is always helpful to know the mostinfluential factors in an investment, and thus a sensitivity analysis methodbased on SAYO is also introduced to enhance investment analysis.

A Probabilistic Simulation Based VaR Computation and Sensitivity Analysis Method